Sushi Man：Hey everyone, thank you for having me.
499Block：So now our ama will officially start. Before that, we ask the guests to make a short self-introduction.
Sushi Man：Yes, I have been in the crypto market since 2016 and I have experienced the euphoric bull market in 2017 and the brutal 3-year bull market in 2018, 2019, 2020 and I do know what it feels like when alts pump 10–20x and when it dumps 98% during a bear market. I’m the crypto space full time as a trader and educator for traders and investors.
I run a educational trading group that focused 100% on crypto. I also have a Youtube channel (Coin Capital 2045) where I provide technical analysis insights and price predictions for alt coins. Yup that’s my little introduction. Back to you.
499Block：That’s impressive experience, great, then let’s start today’s theme. First of all, How technical analysis can help beginners become profitable？
Sushi Man：Technical analysis helps you determine when to buy low and sell high. And if it’s a bearish market, you can make money by shorting the market. When you get good with technical analysis, it helps prevent you from buying high and selling low. Or making impulse trades. Before investing or trading, you’ll practice risk management (which is just a fancy way of saying, you’ll make more money than you lose).
I have seen beginner crypto investors lose 50% of their portfolio simply because they “buy and hold” without a cash out plan or they’re buying at the peak of the bull market and selling at the bottom of the bear market (where they should be buying instead).
Technical anlaysis is also the study of human emotions on the chart. When a coin is at a 98% discount at the bottom of the bear market, and when the news says crypto is over, that’s when the “smart money” is accumulating alt coins.And during the peak of the bull market, when the hype is in and everyone is buying when alt coins have 10–20x, that’s when the smart money sell their coins … and short the market.
And finally, trading crypto is “”technically”” easy, since the price goes up or down. What’s hard is controling the emotions and holding the trade. And as you know, the market is driven by emotions (greed and fear). So yeah, I would say technical analysis is a great skill that everyone should learn, whether you’re a short term trader or long-term investor.
499Block：Exactly! Since we are confronting bear market recently, How do we make profit in bear market?
Sushi Man：By shorting the market. For example, you can short BTC and alt coins on Binance Futures. When BTC or alts go down, you gain USDT if the trade goes your way. It’s easy to make money in the bull market and anyone can buy and hold. But it takes a bit of skill to short the market (but it’s not as hard as you think) It’s risky whether you’re longing or shorting the market. Everything boils down to risk management, meaning how much money you’re willing to gain or lose.
That’s why we always price risk management by planning out the trade and have a stop loss in place. A stop loss helps you lose less money and gain more money. Oh yeah, and a good strategy during a bear market is to stay 100% in USDT, and simply short the market to gian more USDT. Then you buy back into alts when alts have corrected 95–98%.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/I0CSbs0D/ Here’s a recently example of BTC’s price action. It’s in a downwards channel. So we can trade with the trend by shorting BTC when it hits the resistance (upper line) and then taking profit on support (lower line). We keep trading and making money. Time will pass by anyways, so why not trade the market :-)
499Block：Those were great strategies! But are we in a bull or bear market right now? If we are in a bull market, when is the good time to cash out BTC or Alts?
Sushi Man：Currently BTC has crashed 50% from it’s all-time-high of $64.5K. The daily chart does look like a gigantic head and shoulders, which is a bearish pattern. https://www.tradingview.com/x/25nBJxoQ/ If BTC breaks beneath $28K that’s confirm bearish and we can expect another 330 days of bearish until the bottom (roughly)
However, if BTC breaks above $42K we can assume that it’s a bullish market again. When it comes to trading and investing, it’s best to remove emotions (greed and fear) by not being overly bullish or bearish. But rather we just want to react what the chart is telling us and we trade/invest accordingly. And if this is confirmed bear market, we can expect roughly a 80% correction of BTC from the all-time-high which roughly puts BTC at $10K. Personally, I sold all of my BTC and alts at $62K and have told my premium group to cash out also. Right now I’m waiting for BTC’s next move … and just swing trading the downwards channel.
499Block：Great, you said very clearly! These were such a seasoned analysis. Sushi Man, what do you think of the future of crypto?
Sushi Man：Despite the FUD, crypto is here to stay. And I do believe that we’re STILL early in the crypto market. I like how crypto is making the remittance industry better. So I do expect Western Union and Money Gram to go out of business because crypto makes remittance cheaper. I also like DeFi (decentralized finance) space where you can get a loan or trade crypto on an decentralized exchange such as Uniswap or Binance Smart Chain. Regulations will tighten up but crypto is here to stay and it will never go away, especially when people start to lose trust in fiat currency. I guess you can say crypto is digital currency for everyone in the world :) And probably more mind blowing crypto tech that will come up in the next 5 years.
499Block：Yep, we could be optimistic on that. So We are all waiting for the next bull market. When is the next big bull run in your opinion?
Sushi Man：Currently, the narrative is that Bitcoin works in a 4 year market cycle. Usually the big bullrun happens 6 months after the halving date. (The halving is when miners get rewarded less bitcoins every 10 minute) The next halving is Feb 18, 2025 and roughly speaking, you can expect the PEAK of the mega bull run to happen 10 months later. Of course it doesn’t always happen this way but it’s a rough guideline. We use technical analysis to determine when is a good time to buy BTC and alts. You can also use Bitcoin Rainbow chart as a rough gauge on what’s a good time to buy and sell bitcoin for the long-term. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/ Yup that’s all from me. Back to you friend. I’m ready for some questions :-)
499Block：That’s amazing analysis, I’ll use study that chart carefully. Thanks to @heyjuicebox for sharing, I will turn off the mute function. If you have any questions, you can directly ask in the group, and @heyjuicebox will always be in the group. If you have questions about the project, you can ask him in the future.
Sushi Man：Oh yeah, my premium group (Coin Capital 2045) helps beginners and intermediates alike learn how to trade and invest in crypto. It’s $37 per month for membership, feel free to DM for further questions on the group.